Submitted map The drainage in the community of Ocean Park, Wash., will erode much farther inland if ocean levels rise.
‘What you would see here would be a hell of a mess’ Long Beach leaders have no illusions about the severity of the threat if the water level rises
By ELIZABETH LONG East Oregonian Publishing Group
If climate change causes ocean levels to rise 3 feet or more, Pacific County is in deep trouble.
“What you would see here would be a hell of a mess,” said County Commissioner Jon Kaino.
The longtime Washington resident doesn’t doubt global changes are occurring – for whatever reason. But he is cautious of overreacting to incomplete data or inaccurate predictions. He would like more and better information before making land-policy decisions that could decrease the values of people’s property.
Septic tank failures and saltwater contamination in wells are just two of the problems the Long Beach Peninsula could expect if ocean levels rise.
Defined by water
With extensive coastline and low-lying areas, Pacific County is tucked in the southwestern portion of Washington state. To the west is the Pacific Ocean, to the south the Columbia River. At its base, the Long Beach Peninsula juts north, like curled fingers of a cupped hand, forming the boundary of Willapa Bay, which is fed by numerous rivers and creeks.
Along with timber, the area is virtually defined by water.
Each season, crabbers and fishermen set out from the picturesque Port of Ilwaco, gambling on the ocean’s bounty. Oystermen work the tidelands, cultivating a variety of shellfish. Tourists are drawn to the peninsula for razor-clam digging and beach festivals. Retirees, and those who wish to escape cities, buy waterfront homes with views of the ocean, the bay or one of the peninsula’s numerous lakes.
But the very thing that draws people is a threat.
With its low elevation, the peninsula and the eastern shores of Willapa Bay are vulnerable to flooding, tsunamis, tidal storm surges and now rising ocean levels caused by global warming.
How the mechanism works
Oceans are complex and ever-changing systems. During ice ages, the ocean level drops as water becomes locked in glaciers. When temperatures warm, the water returns to the oceans, raising levels.
Off the coast of Pacific County, the level has varied as much as 350 feet over the ages.
The estimates on just how much global warming will raise ocean levels – and where – are just as varied. The temperature of the water, atmospheric pressure, natural cycles such as El Niño, and local topography all influence the calculations.
But even estimates of present ocean levels can be tricky. Tides change by the hour, by the season and in an 18.6-year cycle. Land rises or falls with the motion of the Earth’s crust as tectonic plates grind past each other, causing earthquakes large and small.
Even without climate change, at least two Pacific County cities, Raymond and South Bend, are incrementally sinking as the land subsides, creating the same effect as if the water levele were rising.
But studies are starting to converge in their estimates of how much climate change will cause the ocean level to rise. Now many climate change experts and organizations, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, agree that the region can expect a rise of three or four feet by 2100.
Grab your oars
Historically, local officials have always had to contend with water-related issues in the county, and as a commissioner, Kaino is aware of the problems. After several relatively dry years, last winter was unusually wet. People could just about paddle a kayak through waterlogged neighborhoods.
In addition to frequent flooding, the area is susceptible to extreme high tides and storm-driven tidal surges. Development pressure and demand for waterfront homes, on the ocean, bay or lakesides, has increased the rate of wetland filling, altering traditional drainage patterns and runoff.
If the ocean level increased three or four feet, Kaino can easily envision some of the complications. Aside from the obvious loss of coastal land, he expects there would be more property damage from storm-surge driven high tides and more flooding. He believes the water table would rise, causing saltwater contamination in wells and septic tank failures.
Rod Payne has designed septic systems on the peninsula for 11 years. He too has thought about the consequences of rising levels of the ocean and water table.
“I’m wondering if just three or four inches (in the water table) will make a difference,” he said. “It’s going to be a concern.”
The current seasonal fluctuations in the water table can vary by six feet, he said. “When that water table comes up, you’re going to have problems.”
Woody Pierson with Woody’s Septic Specialties, who installs and maintains all types of systems, was kept busy this winter responding to alarms and system failures. “There’s no question that this year was a problem for septics,” he said.
Rise expected
Regional experts and preliminary analysis of Pacific County using Geographic Information System (see story above) confirm concerns about a 3- to 4-foot rise in ocean levels.
By 2100, those who built their dream waterfont home may be closer than they planned.
Not only would the coastline change, but there is no question there would be a corresponding rise in the water table, said Douglas Canning, recently retired from the Washington Department of Ecology’s Shorelands Program and affiliated with the University of Washington’s Climate Impact Group.
A rise in the table water would cause low-lying inland lakes to expand. Areas that are now wetlands could have standing water year-round, or become small lakes. New wetlands could form on previously dry ground. Freshwater marshes could become inundated with saltwater.
Because Raymond and South Bend are feeling the symptoms, Canning suggests county leaders consider them their canaries in a coal mine.
“Those are my poster children,” for demonstrating the dangers of the long-term effects of rising ocean levels, he said. Any unanticipated consequences of climate change and a rise in the ocean level should manifest there first.
Those cities have already started compensating for their own localized rise in water levels.
“They raised the highway in the ’70s or ’80s,” said South Bend Mayor Karl Heinicke. A dike was installed around the city’s treatment plant to protect it from floodwaters. Regulations require projects funded by federal money to be built on higher elevations so taxpayer money is not wasted on repairing avoidable flood damage.
But still, Heinicke acknowledges, if the ocean does rise three or four feet, there’s not much they can do.
“Let’s face it,” he said, “We can either dike it or evacuate.”
Stricter regulations
Federal, state and local regulations are designed to protect public safety and interests.
Septic design regulations are modified as the understanding of public health and safety issues improves, or new issues come to light. Even now, older systems must be upgraded to meet stricter codes. “Over time, everything is going to get upgraded,” said Payne, the septic system designer. “It’s the health department trying to do public health.”
Coastal development is guided by regulations such as the Shoreline Management Act, the Growth Management Act and the Floodplain Management Act. Locally, the county has a mandatory building setback line, beyond which construction on the coast cannot occur. Some communities, such as the city of Long Beach, enforce stricter regulations as an added protection against erosion, tsunamis, or extreme floods.
“The city has adopted higher regulatory standards beyond what FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) would require,” said Long Beach Community Development Director John Schelling. He believes those standards will help buffer some of the effects of rising ocean levels, and he may be correct.
FEMA bases its building requirements on maps. Those show areas where 100-year and 500-year floods are likely to occur, determining the risk of building in certain areas. (Contrary to what the name implies, 100-year flood plains are not areas where a flood occurs every 100 years, but where there is a 1-percent chance of a flood there in any given year.)
Look ahead, not just at records
However, those Pacific County flood-plain maps and regulations might not offer as much protection as some residents would like. The maps were created by FEMA in the 1970s and the information has not been updated.
Although FEMA is scheduled to update them in 2007, the agency’s backlog, as well as the high-priority demand for new maps of the hurricane-ravaged Southeast, may postpone that schedule.
But the maps are based on historical data and known hazards, not estimates of future trends like rising ocean levels. So those estimates, and therefore the maps, may no longer be reliable.
Also, although zoning codes and regulations are periodically updated, there is no requirement for state or local agencies to consider the consequences of rising ocean levels. Only one Washington city, Olympia, has studied how such changes might affect its shoreline.
But, as Canning points out, nothing prevents local residents and agencies from incorporating information such as GIS modeling, such as this one done in Pacific County, when updating their codes and regulations.
He believes residents should think about the potential impacts of rising ocean levels as a public policy issue.
“It’s entirely a matter of choice,” he said. “People just simply need to educate themselves on what the science says.”
